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ECB·Thu, Jul 23

ECB Decision · 2026-07-23

The most likely bucket right now is No change at $0.99 ask on Kalshi and $0.98 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈99% chance. Prices as of 13:45 UTC on Jul 11, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

ECB

Thu, Jul 23

2%4%6%8%10%24h18h12h6hnow3¢3¢

Illustrative shape drawn from current prices; the live intraday line wires in next.

Bucket prices

Cut >25bps1¢ gap
Kalshi1¢Polymarket0¢
Cut 25bps1¢ gap
Kalshi1¢Polymarket0¢
No change1¢ gap
Kalshi99¢Polymarket98¢
Hike 25bps2¢ gap
Kalshi4¢Polymarket2¢
Hike >25bps1¢ gap
Kalshi1¢Polymarket0¢

Polymarket closes Jul 23, 00:00 UTC · Kalshi closes Jul 23, 12:14 UTC

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.