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Core CPI YoY·Tue, Jul 14

Core CPI YoY Print · 2026-07-14

The most likely bucket right now is 2.8% at $0.60 ask on Kalshi and $0.58 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈59% chance. Prices as of 13:46 UTC on Jul 11, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Core CPI YoY

Tue, Jul 14

2%4%6%8%24h18h12h6hnow3¢

Illustrative shape drawn from current prices; the live intraday line wires in next.

Bucket prices

2.4% or less
Kalshi—
Polymarket1¢
2.5%
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket1¢
2.6%1¢ gap
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket1¢
2.7%
Kalshi15¢
Polymarket15¢
2.8%2¢ gap
Kalshi60¢
Polymarket58¢
2.9%2¢ gap
Kalshi31¢
Polymarket29¢
3.0%3¢ gap
Kalshi7¢
Polymarket4¢
3.1%
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket1¢
3.2%
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket1¢
3.3% or more
Kalshi—
Polymarket0¢

Polymarket closes Jul 15, 03:59 UTC · Kalshi closes Jul 14, 12:25 UTC

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.