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CPI YoY·Tue, Jul 14

CPI YoY Print · 2026-07-14

The most likely bucket right now is 3.8% at $0.50 ask on Kalshi and $0.50 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈50% chance. Prices as of 13:45 UTC on Jul 11, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

CPI YoY

Tue, Jul 14

2%6%8%10%12%24h18h12h6hnow5¢

Illustrative shape drawn from current prices; the live intraday line wires in next.

Bucket prices

3.6% or less
Kalshi—
Polymarket5¢
3.7%1¢ gap
Kalshi30¢
Polymarket31¢
3.8%
Kalshi50¢
Polymarket50¢
3.9%4¢ gap
Kalshi22¢
Polymarket18¢
4.0%
Kalshi4¢
Polymarket4¢
4.1%1¢ gap
Kalshi2¢
Polymarket1¢
4.2%1¢ gap
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket0¢
4.3%1¢ gap
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket0¢
4.4%1¢ gap
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket0¢
4.5%1¢ gap
Kalshi1¢
Polymarket0¢
4.6%
Kalshi—
Polymarket0¢
4.7% or more
Kalshi—
Polymarket0¢

Polymarket closes Jul 15, 03:59 UTC · Kalshi closes Jul 14, 12:29 UTC

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.