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YOY·Wed, Aug 12

CPI YoY Print · 2026-08-12

The most likely outcome right now is 3.1% or less at $0.77 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈77% chance. Prices as of 11:00 UTC on Jul 15, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Release ranges

These ranges are mutually exclusive. A dash means there is no direct market on that venue for the range. Release timing can differ, so the contracts are not interchangeable.

KalshiPolymarket
3.1% or less
Kalshi
Polymarket77¢
3.2%55¢ gap
Kalshi
Polymarket64¢
3.3%64¢ gap
Kalshi14¢
Polymarket78¢
3.4%14¢ gap
Kalshi22¢
Polymarket36¢
3.5%14¢ gap
Kalshi65¢
Polymarket79¢
3.6%41¢ gap
Kalshi38¢
Polymarket79¢
3.7%57¢ gap
Kalshi22¢
Polymarket79¢
3.8%74¢ gap
Kalshi
Polymarket79¢
3.9%74¢ gap
Kalshi
Polymarket79¢
4.0%38¢ gap
Kalshi
Polymarket43¢
4.1%36¢ gap
Kalshi
Polymarket43¢
4.2% or more
Kalshi
Polymarket44¢

Polymarket closes Aug 12, 03:59 UTC · Kalshi closes Aug 12, 12:29 UTC

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.