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ITFW·Tue 7:05 AM ET

Ariana Geerlings vs Lucia Natal

Ariana Geerlings is the current favorite at $0.95 ask on Kalshi and $0.94 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈95% chance. Prices as of 09:50 UTC on Jul 14, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Ariana Geerlings

ITFW

Tue 7:05 AM ET

Lucia Natal
90%92%96%12:20 AM12:47 AM1:26 AM1:55 AM2:27 AM95¢94¢

Moneyline

Ariana Geerlings1¢ gap
Kalshi95¢Polymarket94¢
Lucia Natal2¢ gap
Kalshi7¢Polymarket9¢

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.