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FOMC·Wed, Oct 28

FOMC Decision · 2026-10-28

The most likely bucket right now is No change at $0.74 ask on Kalshi and $0.72 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈73% chance. Prices as of 13:47 UTC on Jul 11, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

FOMC

Wed, Oct 28

6%8%10%12%24h18h12h6hnow3¢3¢

Illustrative shape drawn from current prices; the live intraday line wires in next.

Bucket prices

Cut >25bps1¢ gap
Kalshi3¢Polymarket2¢
Cut 25bps
Kalshi15¢Polymarket15¢
No change2¢ gap
Kalshi74¢Polymarket72¢
Hike 25bps4¢ gap
Kalshi19¢Polymarket15¢
Hike >25bps1¢ gap
Kalshi3¢Polymarket2¢

Polymarket closes Oct 28, 23:59 UTC · Kalshi closes Oct 28, 17:59 UTC

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.