In a World Cup knockout, Tie can still win

A knockout game has no draw. Someone advances, someone goes home, and a casual reader assumes the three-way moneyline market must resolve the same way. It does not. Kalshi's own market description for these contracts states that the result is judged "after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties). If the game ends in a tie, the market called 'Tie' resolves to Yes." Polymarket's matched market prices the same three outcomes on the same 90-minute basis. So a game can go to extra time, get decided on penalties, send one team into the next round, and the Tie contract still pays out, because at the 90-minute mark the score was level.

We watch both order books tick by tick, and the shape of that mispricing shows up clearly on our tape.

What the draw price actually does

Every knockout draw contract on our feed opened somewhere between 20 and 30 cents. That is the market's starting read on a three-way outcome, roughly one in five to three in ten that a given knockout game is level after 90 minutes. Two of the nine knockout games played so far finished with the draw contract at 96 to 97 cents on our tape: Switzerland–Colombia in the round of 16 and Norway–England in the quarterfinal. Both games were in fact level at the 90-minute mark. Switzerland–Colombia finished 0–0 in regulation, with Switzerland going through 4–3 on penalties, and Norway–England stood 1–1 after 90 before England won 2–1 in extra time. In both, the Tie outcome came in while a team still advanced, and our tape shows the books pricing exactly that as it happened.

Here is where every knockout draw opened, peaked, and last traded on our tape as of the snapshot below. A few games have gaps in the history because our opportunity engine only began watching mid-way through the round of 16, so those matches show no draw tick at all.

Match	Round	Date	Draw open	Draw max	Draw last
Mexico vs England	R16	Jul 5	0.30	0.37	0.01
Portugal vs Spain	R16	Jul 6	0.27	0.78	n/a (no closing tick)
USA vs Belgium	R16	Jul 6	0.29	0.33	n/a (no closing tick)
Argentina vs Egypt	R16	Jul 7	0.20	0.75	n/a (no closing tick)
Switzerland vs Colombia	R16	Jul 7	0.30	0.96	0.96
France vs Morocco	QF	Jul 9	0.25	0.37	n/a (no closing tick)
Spain vs Belgium	QF	Jul 10	n/a (no opening tick)	0.68	n/a (no closing tick)
Argentina vs Switzerland	QF	Jul 11	0.27	0.30	0.17 (still active)
Norway vs England	QF	Jul 11	0.26	0.97	0.97
France vs Spain	SF	Jul 14	0.30	0.30	0.30 (pre-game)

Read the max column against the open column and the pattern is the same across the bracket. Even games that never got near a draw at the end still traded the Tie contract up into the 30s, 60s, or high 70s at some point along the way, because for 90 minutes the outcome was genuinely in play. Mexico–England opened its draw at 30 cents, peaked at 37, and collapsed to a cent by the end of our tape. Portugal–Spain and Argentina–Egypt both saw the draw price climb above 70 cents mid-match before the books moved on. The two games in the table that finished near 1.00, Switzerland–Colombia and Norway–England, are simply the cases where that in-game climb never reversed.

France beat Morocco on July 9, Spain beat Belgium on July 10, and the two of them meet in the July 14 semifinal. The July 11 quarterfinals, Argentina–Switzerland and Norway–England, feed the other semifinal, which is not yet matched on both venues in our feed. Norway–England is the sharper illustration of the rule anyway: the game England won sits in our table with a draw price of 0.97 at the end of the tape, because the win came in extra time and the 90-minute market had already gone to Tie. The moneyline outcome and the 90-minute outcome are two different questions, and the price history treats them that way even when a casual reader would not.

Right now, with the France–Spain semifinal not yet kicked off, the draw contract sits at 30 cents on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of our 2026-07-12 02:15 UTC snapshot. That is the same open-of-market level every knockout draw has started from. Whether it climbs the way Norway–England's did, or collapses the way Mexico–England's did, is exactly what the tape will show once the game starts.

A note on what is counted here. The prices above come from our confirmed-parity matches only, where we have independently verified both venues are pricing the same outcome on the same game. A separate caveat rides on many of these pairs regardless: one venue often states how it settles a cancelled or abandoned game while the other stays silent, so the two books could in principle pay out differently in that tail case. That caveat concerns the cancellation tail rather than which team won, and it is disclosed per market. It does not change what the draw price itself is telling you about the 90-minute outcome.

The matched feed, including the moneyline history behind this table, is on REST and free to read on any plan. Real-time push over our WebSocket feed, so a draw price like this reaches you the instant it moves, is on Basic and Pro. The Quickstart gets you a feed on a free key.