How Kalshi and Polymarket price the France–Spain World Cup semifinal

The first semifinal of the World Cup is two days out. France plays Spain on July 14, and it is the only semifinal matched on both venues so far; the other bracket has not settled enough for our matcher to pair a Kalshi market with a Polymarket one yet. For France–Spain, the moneyline has been live and matched on our feed since July 11 at 10:11 UTC. By the time we pulled this snapshot, at 02:15 UTC on July 12, that is 660 one-minute ticks of both books quoted side by side on the same three outcomes.

Twelve markets are matched for this game in total: the moneyline, four spread markets, six totals, and one advance-to-final pair. Price history so far only goes back far enough to say something on the moneyline, so that is what follows.

Both books define the outcome the same way. Kalshi's market description settles on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties do not count, and if the two teams are level at that point the market called "Tie" resolves Yes. Polymarket's matched market prices the same three outcomes on the same 90-minute basis. That matters here because a draw at 90 minutes is a real, payable outcome even when one team goes on to win in extra time or on penalties and advances to the final. Both markets ask one narrow question: what does the scoreboard read at the 90-minute mark?

Here is where the two books stand as of the snapshot, along with the range each has traded in over the full 16-hour tape:

Outcome	Kalshi now	Polymarket now	Kalshi range	Polymarket range	Avg gap (Kalshi − Poly)
France	$0.42	$0.43	$0.41–$0.42	$0.41–$0.43	−$0.0177
Spain	$0.30	$0.30	$0.30–$0.30	$0.30–$0.30	$0.0000
Draw (90 min)	$0.30	$0.30	$0.30–$0.30	$0.30–$0.31	−$0.0030

Two of the three lines are about as close as two independent books get. Spain has priced identically on both venues on every single tick we have recorded, thirty cents, no exceptions. The draw has stayed within a cent the entire tape. France is the outlier. Kalshi has sat one to two cents under Polymarket on France for nearly the whole 16 hours, averaging just under 1.8 cents lower, and that gap has held its direction the whole time rather than crossing back and forth. It is a small, one-sided lean rather than noise.

Add up the three asks on each book and you get 1.02 on Kalshi, 1.03 on Polymarket. Neither sums to 1.00, which is normal for order-book pricing, but it also means no three-leg arbitrage has fired on this game yet. A confirmed arb needs the combined cost of buying all three outcomes across both books to come in under a dollar, and that has not happened here so far.

The number worth sitting with is the draw. Thirty cents on both books is close to three-in-ten. That is the market's read on the odds that France and Spain are level when the 90-minute clock runs out, in a game where someone still has to walk away with a spot in the final on July 19. It is a reminder that "Draw" here is a specific, payable claim about the scoreline at a specific point in the match, and right now both books think it is a live possibility.

A note on what is counted here. This comparison uses only pairs the matcher has confirmed as the same outcome on both venues, in the confirmed-parity band; a separate review band, where the match is less certain, is excluded entirely. A settlement caveat still applies to nearly all of these pairs: one venue typically states how it resolves a cancelled or abandoned game while the other stays silent, so the two could in principle pay out differently in that tail case. That caveat is disclosed per market and does not affect the outcome match itself, which is what confirmed-parity means. And all of this moves. These are snapshot numbers from one point in the tape rather than a forecast, and the two books can converge, diverge further, or flip before kickoff.

The matched feed for this game, moneyline and the other eleven pairs, is on REST and free to read on any plan. Real-time push over our Centrifugo WebSocket, where a gap like the France lean above reaches you the instant it opens, is on Basic and Pro. The Quickstart gets you a feed on a free key.