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·Thu 4:30 AM ET

Maximilian Homberg vs Niccolo Ciavarella

Maximilian Homberg is the current favorite at $0.67 ask on Kalshi and $0.65 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈66% chance. Prices as of 07:55 UTC on Jul 16, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Maximilian Homberg

Thu 4:30 AM ET

Niccolo Ciavarella
64%66%68%70%12:24 AM12:57 AM1:30 AM2:02 AM2:35 AM67¢65¢

Moneyline

Maximilian Homberg2¢ gap
Kalshi67¢Polymarket65¢
Niccolo Ciavarella
Kalshi37¢Polymarket37¢

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.