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·Thu 3:00 AM ET

Guglielmo Verdese vs Pedro Vives Marcos

Pedro Vives Marcos is the current favorite at $0.87 ask on Kalshi and $0.86 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈87% chance. Prices as of 04:50 UTC on Jul 16, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Guglielmo Verdese

Thu 3:00 AM ET

Pedro Vives Marcos
0%40%60%80%100%6:17 PM7:47 PM9:22 PM11:05 PM12:48 AM14¢17¢

Moneyline

Guglielmo Verdese3¢ gap
Kalshi14¢Polymarket17¢
Pedro Vives Marcos1¢ gap
Kalshi87¢Polymarket86¢

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.