ECB Decision · 2026-09-10
The most likely outcome right now is Hike 25bps at $0.96 ask on Kalshi and $0.83 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈90% chance. Prices as of 07:19 UTC on Jul 24, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.
Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.
Decision outcomes
These decision outcomes are mutually exclusive. Cancellation rules can differ, so the contracts are not interchangeable.
Polymarket closes Sep 10, 11:59 UTC · Kalshi closes Sep 10, 12:14 UTC
Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. How the market matching API works · Real-time WebSocket API docs. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.