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ATPCHALLENGER·Tue 4:00 AM ET

Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli

Federico Bondioli is the current favorite at $0.54 ask on Kalshi and $0.53 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈54% chance. Prices as of 04:10 UTC on Jul 14, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Alvaro Guillen Meza

ATPCHALLENGER

Tue 4:00 AM ET

Federico Bondioli
46%48%50%4:22 PM6:30 PM8:11 PM9:54 PM12:08 AM47¢48¢

Moneyline

Alvaro Guillen Meza2¢ gap
Kalshi49¢Polymarket47¢
Federico Bondioli1¢ gap
Kalshi54¢Polymarket53¢

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.