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·Thu 6:00 AM ET

Goncalo Marques vs Samuel De Felipe Garcia

Goncalo Marques is the current favorite at $0.81 ask on Kalshi and $0.97 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈89% chance. Prices as of 04:51 UTC on Jul 16, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Goncalo Marques

Thu 6:00 AM ET

Samuel De Felipe Garcia
75%80%90%95%100%6:28 PM7:59 PM9:31 PM11:11 PM12:49 AM85¢82¢

Moneyline

Goncalo Marques16¢ gap
Kalshi81¢Polymarket97¢
Samuel De Felipe Garcia20¢ gap
Kalshi77¢Polymarket97¢

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.