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·Wed 4:00 AM ET

Edoardo Cherie Ligniere vs Luca Castagnola

Luca Castagnola is the current favorite at $0.64 ask on Kalshi and $0.62 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈63% chance. Prices as of 11:06 UTC on Jul 15, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Edoardo Cherie Ligniere

Wed 4:00 AM ET

Luca Castagnola
39%40%42%43%3:53 PM4:12 PM4:26 PM4:39 PM4:53 PM41¢41¢

Moneyline

Edoardo Cherie Ligniere
Kalshi41¢Polymarket41¢
Luca Castagnola2¢ gap
Kalshi64¢Polymarket62¢

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.