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·Wed 6:00 AM ET

Carmen Gallardo Guevara vs Kira Pavlova

Kira Pavlova is the current favorite at $0.59 ask on Kalshi and $0.57 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈58% chance. Prices as of 11:06 UTC on Jul 15, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Carmen Gallardo Guevara

Wed 6:00 AM ET

Kira Pavlova
60%80%100%6:27 PM7:05 PM7:51 PM8:28 PM9:08 PM45¢46¢

Moneyline

Carmen Gallardo Guevara1¢ gap
Kalshi45¢Polymarket46¢
Kira Pavlova2¢ gap
Kalshi59¢Polymarket57¢

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.