Austin Daily High · 2026-07-12
The most likely bucket right now is 92-93°F at $0.38 ask on Kalshi and $0.41 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈40% chance. Prices as of 19:03 UTC on Jul 11, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.
Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.
Austin
Sun, Jul 12
offset dayIllustrative shape drawn from current prices; the live intraday line wires in next.
Bracket alignment
Both venues' brackets on one temperature axis — each price belongs to its own venue's real bracket. Offset days show as shifted segments.
Bucket prices
Offset day: the venues' brackets differ by 1°F — the alignment strip above shows each venue's real brackets and prices. Nothing is ever combined.
Polymarket closes Jul 12, 12:00 UTC · Kalshi closes Jul 13, 05:59 UTC
Settlement: Austin-Bergstrom (Kalshi: NWS CLI · Poly: Wunderground KAUS)
Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.