Skip to content
← All markets
FED·Wed, Oct 28

Fed Decision · 2026-10-28

The most likely outcome right now is No change at $0.66 ask on Kalshi and $0.60 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈63% chance. Prices as of 18:25 UTC on Jul 15, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Decision outcomes

These decision outcomes are mutually exclusive. Cancellation rules can differ, so the contracts are not interchangeable.

KalshiPolymarket
Cut >25bps1¢ gap
KalshiPolymarket
Cut 25bps
Kalshi10¢Polymarket10¢
No change6¢ gap
Kalshi66¢Polymarket60¢
Hike 25bps2¢ gap
Kalshi24¢Polymarket26¢
Hike >25bps1¢ gap
KalshiPolymarket

Polymarket closes Oct 28, 23:59 UTC · Kalshi closes Oct 28, 17:59 UTC

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.