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·Wed 7:35 AM ET

Mattias Pisanu vs Timofei Derepasko

Timofei Derepasko is the current favorite at $0.92 ask on Kalshi and $0.94 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈93% chance. Prices as of 11:00 UTC on Jul 15, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Mattias Pisanu

Wed 7:35 AM ET

Timofei Derepasko
5%10%15%20%12:29 AM12:45 AM1:06 AM1:27 AM1:42 AM8¢18¢

Moneyline

Mattias Pisanu10¢ gap
KalshiPolymarket18¢
Timofei Derepasko2¢ gap
Kalshi92¢Polymarket94¢

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.