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·Thu 12:30 PM ET

Aziz Ouakaa vs Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka is the current favorite at $0.83 ask on Kalshi and $0.83 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈83% chance. Prices as of 07:54 UTC on Jul 16, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Aziz Ouakaa

Thu 12:30 PM ET

Ilya Ivashka
15%16%19%20%1:03 AM1:32 AM1:59 AM2:29 AM2:57 AM17¢18¢

Moneyline

Aziz Ouakaa1¢ gap
Kalshi17¢Polymarket18¢
Ilya Ivashka
Kalshi83¢Polymarket83¢

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.