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·Thu 5:00 AM ET

Nicolas Parizzia vs Tomas Lanik

Nicolas Parizzia is the current favorite at $0.63 ask on Kalshi and $0.97 ask on Polymarket — an implied ≈80% chance. Prices as of 04:54 UTC on Jul 16, 2026, delayed about five minutes. Source markets: Kalshi · Polymarket. Resolution follows each venue's own market terms.

Curious how long a gap like this stays open? We measured it.

Nicolas Parizzia

Thu 5:00 AM ET

Tomas Lanik
60%70%80%90%100%6:17 PM6:21 PM6:25 PM6:31 PM6:37 PM63¢97¢

Moneyline

Nicolas Parizzia34¢ gap
Kalshi63¢Polymarket97¢
Tomas Lanik51¢ gap
Kalshi46¢Polymarket97¢

Prices delayed about five minutes. Each venue's best ask per outcome; Kalshi asks are derived from its NO bids (ask = $1 minus the bid). Kalshi volume counts contracts, Polymarket volume is in dollars. Real-time prices and the full depth ladder are available via the WebSocket stream with an API key. Feed reference DINO-XKQZ7-9182.